Daily Markets

• Oil prices inched lower in volatile trade on Monday, as a stronger dollar and fears of recession risks offset gains arising from Russia's plans to deepen oil supply cuts. The dollar hovered near a seven-week peak on Monday after a slew of strong U.S. economic data reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates further and for longer. A firm dollar makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive for holders of other currencies. Fears of a hawkish Fed returned to the fore on Friday after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, shot up 0.6% last month after gaining 0.2% in December. Adding to the downside pressure, U.S. crude oil inventories surged to the highest level since May 2021 last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed. On supply side, Russia plans to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding its previously announced production cuts of 5% of its output during the month. Oil prices have fallen by about a sixth in the year since Feb. 24, 2022, when Russian troops first marched into Ukraine. Russia halted supplies of oil to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline, the chief executive of Polish refiner PKN Orlen said on Saturday, a day after Poland delivered its first Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Two weeks after the invasion, prices surged to a record high of nearly $128 a barrel over oversupply concern but have since cooled over fears of a global economic slowdown. Separately, investors are bracing for China's manufacturing surveys this week for a clear direction on oil demand. China is holding its annual parliamentary meeting from this weekend and will see new economic policy targets and policies.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made it’s intraday high of US$1827.71/oz and low of $1808.85/oz. Gold is down by 0.617% at US$1810.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1815-1874 keeping stop loss closing above 1874, targeting 1802 and 1790-1774-1761. Buy in between 1802-1761 with risk below 1761, targeting 1815-1830-1844 and 1853-1874-1887.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$21.10/oz and low of US20.72/oz settled down by 2.78% at US$20.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 20.60-18.00, targeting 21.10-22.10-23.00 and 24.40-25.00-25.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 18.00. Sell in between 21.10-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 20.70-19.90 and 19.50-19.01.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$76.63/bbl, an intraday low of US$73.85/bbl, and settled down by 2.35% to close at US$75.69/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 77.00-80.40 with stop loss at 80.40; targeting 75.10-74.00-73.10 and 72.40-71.90-71.00. Buy above 75.10-71.20 with risk daily closing below 71.20; targeting 77.00-78.10 and 78.95-79.65-80.30.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0535/EUR, a high of US$1.0613/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.465% to close at US$1.0544/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0550-1.0810, targeting 1.0520-1.0480 and 1.0450-1.0400 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0810. Buy above 1.0520-1.0450 with risk below 1.0450 targeting 1.0550-1.0590-1.0650 and 1.0690-1.0750-1.0810.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1927/GBP, a high of US$1.2041/GBP, and settled the day down 0.593% to close at US$1.1939/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.21) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1900-1.1650 with a target of 1.2010-1.2090-1.1.2120 and 1.2170-1.2290- 1.2390 with a stop loss closing below 1.1650. Sell in between 1.2010-1.2650 with targets at 1.1900-1.1820-1.1750 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY134.05/USD and made an intraday high of JPY136.51/USD and settled the day up by 1.333% at JPY136.48/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 136.50-140.60 with risk above 140.60 targeting 135.50-134.90-133.90 and 132.90-132.00-131.60. Long positions above 135.50-131.20 with targets of 136.50-138.10-139.00 and 140.10-140.60 with stops below 130.00.