Daily Markets

• Oil prices fell on Tuesday, pulling back sharply from a recent recovery as markets hunkered down ahead of several more cues on U.S. monetary policy this week, while strength in the dollar also weighed. Focus this week is squarely on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s February meeting, due on Wednesday, as well as a slew of Fed speakers this week. The minutes are largely expected to reiterate the central bank’s hawkish outlook. Fed officials also recently warned that U.S. interest rates are likely to rise more than expected this year, as inflation readings for January showed that price pressures remained sticky. Higher rates are expected to weigh heavily on economic growth, and in turn, hurt crude demand this year. A reading on the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is also due this week, and is expected to show few signs of slowing inflation in January Strength in the dollar, which hovered near a six-week high against a basket of currencies, also pressured oil prices. A strong dollar makes crude more expensive for international buyers, which weighs on demand. Fears of the Fed largely offset optimism over a recovery in Chinese demand this year, after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures. China is forecast to drive crude demand to record highs this year, according to the OPEC and the IEA. But recent economic readings show that several facets of the country are still struggling in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Recent Bloomberg data also showed that while local travel demand surged after the lifting of anti-COVID measures, it was now cooling from a peak hit in late-January. A looming supply glut in the U.S. also weighed on oil markets, especially as the Biden administration recently outlined plans to sell 26 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The sale, coupled with a seven-week-long build in U.S. crude inventories, raised the prospect of oversupply in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made it’s intraday high of US$1847.40/oz and low of $1837.21/oz. Gold is up by 0.0103% at US$1841.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1850-1918 keeping stop loss closing above 1918, targeting 1874-1865-1853 and 1837-1823-1815. Buy in between 1854-1,815 with risk below 1815, targeting 1887-1900-1910 and 1917-1927-1940.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$21.89/oz and low of US21.54/oz settled up by 0.660% at US$21.80/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.50-20.30, targeting 22.10-23.00-24.40 and 25.00-25.90- 26.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 20.30. Sell in between 23.00-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 23.60-23.00-22.10 and 21.70-21.30-20.70.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$77.73/bbl, an intraday low of US$76.30/bbl, and settled down by 1.046% to close at US$77.45/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 77.50-83.40 with stop loss at 83.40; targeting 77.00-76.10 and 75.50-74.90-73.00. Buy above 77.10-72.00 with risk daily closing below 72.00; targeting 78.10-78.95-79.65 and 80.30-80.90-81.40.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0669/EUR, a high of US$1.0704/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0046% to close at US$1.0684/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0710-1.1100, targeting 1.0830-1.0790-1.0690 and 1.0650-1.0590-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0650-1.0510 with risk below 1.0820 targeting 1.0900-1.0945-1.0990 and 1.1050-1.1100.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2013/GBP, a high of US$1.2048/GBP, and settled the day up 0.103% to close at US$1.2037/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.21) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1900-1.1650 with a target of 1.2010-1.2090-1.1.2120 and 1.2170-1.2290- 1.2390 with a stop loss closing below 1.1650. Sell in between 1.2010-1.2650 with targets at 1.1900-1.1820-1.1750 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY133.91/USD and made an intraday high of JPY134.53/USD and settled the day down by 0.00596% at JPY134.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 133.90-135.10 with risk above 133.00 targeting 129.50-129.00-127.45 and 126.90-126.20-125.00. Long positions above 132.50-126.20 with targets of 133.90—134.80-135.50 and 136.50-138.10 with stops below 130.00.