Daily Markets

• Oil prices rose on Monday amid optimism over China's demand recovery, concerns that underinvestment will crimp future oil supply and as major producers keep output limits in place. The benchmarks settled down $2 a barrel on Friday, and closed lower by about 4% last week after the United States reported higher crude and gasoline inventories. While last week's announcement that the U.S. will sell 26 million barrels of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves adds some downward pressure to the market, global supply looks to be "flat to down" versus the previous corresponding period after factoring in production cuts by Russia and OPEC+, added Moore. He was referring to the agreement by the OPEC and allies, a group known as OPEC+, last October to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2023. Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 bpd, or around 5% of output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products. Analysts expect China's oil imports to hit an all-time high in 2023 due to increased demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come onstream. China, along with India, have become top buyers of Russian crude following the European Union embargo. At the same time, future oil supply shortages are likely to drive prices toward $100 a barrel by the end of the year, analysts from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in a Feb. 19 note. Prices will move higher "as the market pivots back to deficit with underinvestment, shale constraints and OPEC discipline ensuring supply does not meet demand," they wrote.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made it’s intraday high of US$1843.51/oz and low of $1818.82/oz. Gold is up by 0.336% at US$1842.58/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1850-1918 keeping stop loss closing above 1918, targeting 1874-1865-1853 and 1837-1823-1815. Buy in between 1854-1,815 with risk below 1815, targeting 1887-1900-1910 and 1917-1927-1940.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$21.79/oz and low of US21.16/oz settled up by 0.765% at US$21.72/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 21.50-20.30, targeting 22.10-23.00-24.40 and 25.00-25.90- 26.20 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 20.30. Sell in between 23.00-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 23.60-23.00-22.10 and 21.70-21.30-20.70.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$78.48/bbl, an intraday low of US$75.31/bbl, and settled down by 0.563% to close at US$76.49/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 77.50-83.40 with stop loss at 83.40; targeting 77.00-76.10 and 75.50-74.90-73.00. Buy above 77.10-72.00 with risk daily closing below 72.00; targeting 78.10-78.95-79.65 and 80.30-80.90-81.40.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0612/EUR, a high of US$1.0697/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.197% to close at US$1.0693/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0710-1.1100, targeting 1.0830-1.0790-1.0690 and 1.0650-1.0590-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0650-1.0510 with risk below 1.0820 targeting 1.0900-1.0945-1.0990 and 1.1050-1.1100.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1914/GBP, a high of US$1.2048/GBP, and settled the day down 0.397% to close at US$1.2040/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.21) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1900-1.1650 with a target of 1.2010-1.2090-1.1.2120 and 1.2170-1.2290- 1.2390 with a stop loss closing below 1.1650. Sell in between 1.2010-1.2650 with targets at 1.1900-1.1820-1.1750 and 1.1650-1.1600 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY133.92/USD and made an intraday high of JPY135.11/USD and settled the day up by 0.160% at JPY134.14/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 133.90-135.10 with risk above 133.00 targeting 129.50-129.00-127.45 and 126.90-126.20-125.00. Long positions above 132.50-126.20 with targets of 133.90—134.80-135.50 and 136.50-138.10 with stops below 130.00.