Daily Markets

• Oil prices edged lower on Friday but were set for a weekly gain with the market continuing to seesaw between fears of a recession hitting the United States and hopes for strong fuel demand recovery in China, the world's top oil importer. The downturn was partly due to a report on Thursday showing the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, reigniting recession fears. An increase in China's consumer price index (CPI) for January compared with December, with inflation approaching the target of about 3% that the government set last year, added an air of caution for the oil market. The latest U.S. oil inventory data this week also raised fears about a slowdown in the world's biggest economy, with crude stocks having climbed to their highest since June 2021. Nevertheless, Brent and WTI have jumped more than 5% so far this week, reversing most of the previous week's losses as concerns about further sharp interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve have eased. The market has been buoyed by Saudi Arabia's move to increase its official crude sales prices to Asia, seen as reflecting a demand recovery in China, where crude runs are expected to increase in March Looking ahead, China's demand will be one of the most important drivers to watch for oil prices, said research director at Wood Mackenzie, Sushant Gupta. Oil markets were supported by Saudi Arabia increasing its official crude sales price to Asia, which indicates that the world’s largest oil producer sees a potential recovery in Chinese demand. Weakness in the dollar, amid growing uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates, also benefited crude markets. While a slew of Federal Reserve officials signaled that rates are likely to increase in the coming months, higher-than-expected weekly unemployment claims data boosted hopes that a cooling jobs market could stay the Fed’s hand. Focus now turns to U.S. inflation data for January, due next week, for more cues on the potential path of U.S. monetary policy. While inflation is forecast to have eased further from the prior month, it is still expected to read well above the Fed’s annual target.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made it’s intraday high of US$1890.10/oz and low of $1858.83/oz. Gold is down by 0 .335% at US$1861.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1874-1918 keeping stop loss closing above 1918, targeting 1874-1865-1853 and 1837-1823-1815. Buy in between 1865-1,815 with risk below 1815, targeting 1887-1900-1910 and 1917-1927-1940.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$22.58/oz and low of US21.90/oz settled down by 1.54% at US$21.96/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.25-20.30, targeting 24.40-25.00-25.90 and 26.20-26.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 20.30. Sell in between 23.00-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 23.60-23.00-22.10 and 21.70-21.30-20.70.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$78.97/bbl, an intraday low of US$76.68/bbl, and settled down by 1.00% to close at US$77.78/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 78.95-83.40 with stop loss at 83.40; targeting 78.10-77.00-76.10 and 75.50-74.90. Buy above 78.10-72.00 with risk daily closing below 72.00; targeting 78.95-79.65-80.10.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0708/EUR, a high of US$1.0790/EUR, and settled the day down by 0.224% to close at US$1.0732/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0750-1.1100, targeting 1.0830-1.0790-1.0690 and 1.0650-1.0590-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0690-1.0510 with risk below 1.0820 targeting 1.0900-1.0945-1.0990 and 1.1050-1.1100.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2055/GBP, a high of US$1.2193/GBP, and settled the day up 0.410% to close at US$1.2119/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2090-1.1750 with a target of 1.2120-1.2170-1.2290 and 1.2390-1.2440-1.2490 with a stop loss closing below 1.1750. Sell in between 1.2170-1.2650 with targets at 1.2090-1.2040-1.1990 and 1.1900-1.1820-1.1750 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY130.58/USD and made an intraday high of JPY131.53/USD and settled the day up by 0.255% at JPY131.33/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 132.0-135.10 with risk above 133.00 targeting 129.50-129.00-127.45 and 126.90-126.20-125.00. Long positions above 129.50-126.20 with targets of 130.40 and 131.10-131.60-132.00 with stops below 130.00.