Daily Markets

• Oil prices inched up on Monday after falling 8% last week to more than three-week lows as concerns that slower growth in major economies may limit fuel consumption outweighed signs of a demand recovery in China, the world's top oil importer. Last Friday, WTI and Brent slid 3% after strong U.S. jobs data raised concerns that the Federal Reserve would keep raising interest rates, which in turn boosted the dollar. The stronger greenback typically reduces demand for dollar-denominated oil from buyers paying with other currencies. While recession fears dominated the market last week, on Sunday International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol highlighted that China's recovery remains a key driver for oil prices. The IEA expects half of global oil demand growth this year will come from China, where Birol said jet fuel demand was surging. He said depending on how strong that recovery is, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together called OPEC+, may have to reassess their decision to cut output by 2 million barrels per day through 2023. Higher interest rates, however, are keeping a lid on further price gains, as they are likely to curtail economic growth and increases in fuel demand, say analyst. Price caps on Russian products also took effect on Sunday, with the Group of Seven (G7), the European Union and Australia agreeing on caps of $100 per barrel on diesel and other products that trade at a premium to crude, and $45 per barrel for products that trade at a discount, such as fuel oil. Saudi Arabia's energy minister also warned over the weekend that sanctions and underinvestment in the energy sector could result in a shortage of energy supplies.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made it’s intraday high of US$191848/oz and low of $1861.31/oz. Gold is down by 2.46% at US$1865.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1887-1918 keeping stop loss closing above 1918, targeting 1874-1865-1853 and 1837-1823-1815. Buy in between 1874-1,815 with risk below 1815, targeting 1887-1900-1910 and 1917-1927-1940.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$23.59/oz and low of US22.34/oz settled down by 2.12% at US$22.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 22.25-20.30, targeting 24.40-25.00-25.90 and 26.20-26.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 20.30. Sell in between 23.00-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 23.60-23.00-22.10 and 21.70-21.30-20.70.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$78.15/bbl, an intraday low of US$73.30/bbl, and settled down by 3.504% to close at US$73.40/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 76.676.10-83.40 with stop loss at 83.40; targeting 78.10-77.00-76.10 and 75.50-74.90-74.10. Buy above 75.10-72.00 with risk daily closing below 72.00; targeting 76.10-77.00-78.10 and 78.95-79.65-80.10.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0791/EUR, a high of US$1.0939/EUR, and settled the day down by 1.038% to close at US$1.0795/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0790-1.1100, targeting 1.0830-1.0790-1.0690 and 1.0650-1.0590-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0750-1.0520 with risk below 1.0820 targeting 1.0900-1.0945-1.0990 and 1.1050-1.1100.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2046/GBP, a high of US$1.2265/GBP, and settled the day down 1.381% to close at US$1.2054/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2040-1.1890 with a target of 1.2120-1.2170-1.2290 and 1.2390-1.2440-1.2490 with a stop loss closing below 1.1890. Sell in between 1.120-1.2650 with targets at 1.2040-1.1990-1.1900-1.1820 and 1.1750-1.1690 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY128.31/USD and made an intraday high of JPY131.19/USD and settled the day up by 2.01% at JPY131.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 132.0-135.10 with risk above 133.00 targeting 129.50-129.00-127.45 and 126.90-126.20-125.00. Long positions above 129.50-126.20 with targets of 130.40 and 131.10-131.60-132.00 with stops below 130.00.