Daily Markets

• Crude oil prices edged higher in Asian trade on Tuesday amid hopes of a fuel demand recovery from top importer China, although concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy capped gains. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally, as China, no longer held back by pandemic controls, has shown signs of more buying and as traders have worried that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. The dollar hovered near a nine-month low to the euro and gave back recent gains against the yen, as traders continued to gauge the risks of a U.S. recession and the path for Federal Reserve policy. A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities, including oil, cheaper for buyers using other currencies. In the United States, "the economy still could rollover and some energy traders are still sceptical on how quickly China's crude demand will bounce back this quarter," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note. Demand for products has lifted the oil market and refining margins. The 3-2-1 crack spread, a proxy for refining margins, rose to $42.18 per barrel on Monday, the highest since October. Investors have piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns about a global business cycle downturn have eased, although flash PMI data due on Tuesday is expected to show a contraction. This week traders are watching for more business data that could indicate the health of global economies during an earnings reporting season. On the inventory side, U.S. stocks of crude oil and gasoline were expected to have risen last week, while distillate stocks were seen lower, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, due at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) on Tuesday, and the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, due at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT) on Wednesday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made it’s intraday high of US$1935.42/oz and low of $1911.28/oz. Gold is up by 0.258% at US$1930.80/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1930-1967 keeping stop loss closing above 1967, targeting 1914-1900-1894 and 1887-1879-1869. Buy in between 1927-1879 with risk below 1879, targeting 1940-1948 and 1955-1967.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$24.14/oz and low of US22.74/oz settled down by 1.989% at US$23.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.00-20.30, targeting 24.40-25.00-25.90 and 26.20-26.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 20.30. Sell in between 24.00-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 23.60-23.00-22.10 and 21.70-21.30-20.70.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$82.65/bbl, an intraday low of US$81.07/bbl, and settled down by 0.199% to close at US$81.63/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.60-83.40 with stop loss at 83.40; targeting 80.50-79.65-78.95 and 78.10-77.00-76.10. Buy above 81.50-76.10 with risk daily closing below 76.10; targeting 81.70-82.30-82.70 and 83.30-84.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0845/EUR, a high of US$1.0926/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0377% to close at US$1.0870/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0900-1.1100, targeting 1.0830-1.0790-1.0690 and 1.0650-1.0590-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0830-1.0520 with risk below 1.0820 targeting 1.0900-1.0945-1.0990 and 1.1050-1.1100.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2322/GBP, a high of US$1.2447/GBP, and settled the day down 0.208% to close at US$1.2373/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2350-1.1890 with a target of 1.2390-1.2445-1.2290 with a stop loss closing below 1.1890. Sell in between 1.2445-1.2650 with targets at 1.2350-1.2290-1.2170 and 1.2120-1.2040-1.1990 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Monday made an intra‐day low of JPY129.03/USD and made an intraday high of JPY130.88/USD and settled the day up by 0.942% at JPY130.65/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 130.50-133.00 with risk above 133.00 targeting 129.50-129.00-127.45 and 126.90-126.20-125.00. Long positions above 129.50-126.20 with targets of 130.40 and 131.10-131.60-132.00 with stops below 130.00.