Daily Markets

• Oil futures fell by nearly $1 on Thursday, extending losses from the previous day, as a surprise jump in U.S. crude stocks weighed on the market along with fears of a recession that were heightened by disappointing U.S. retail sales and output data. U.S. December retail sales fell by the most in a year, while manufacturing output recorded its biggest drop in nearly two years, as higher borrowing costs hurt demand for goods. Still, Federal Reserve officials said interest rates needed to rise beyond 5% even as inflation shows signs of having peaked and economic activity is slowing. Adding to the pall, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude oil inventories rose by about 7.6 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 13, according to market sources. The mean average forecast from a Reuters' poll of nine analysts had been for a fall of about 600,000 barrels. The big build marked the second consecutive week of large inventory increases. However, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by about 1.8 million barrels against analysts' expectations for a 120,000-barrel increase. The API report was delayed by a day due to Monday's Martin Luther King Day public holiday in the United States. The government's Energy Information Administration will release its weekly inventory report on Thursday. With aggressive rate hikes still on the cards, the U.S. dollar climbed, weighing on oil demand as a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive for those holding other currencies.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Wednesday made it’s intraday high of US$1925.82/oz and low of $1896.50/oz. Gold is down by 0.224% at US$1904.18/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1914-1967 keeping stop loss closing above 1967, targeting 1914-1900-1894 and 1887-1879-1869. Buy in between 1900-1879 with risk below 1879, targeting 1927-1940-1948 and 1955-1967.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$24.33/oz and low of US23.41/oz settled down by 1.849% at US$23.46/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.60-20.30, targeting 24.40-25.00-25.90 and 26.20-26.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 20.30. Sell in between 24.40-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 23.60-23.00-22.10 and 21.70-21.30-20.70.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$82.64/bbl, an intraday low of US$79.21/bbl, and settled up by 2.23% to close at US$79.41/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 81.20-83.40 with stop loss at 83.40; targeting 80.50-79.65-78.95 and 78.10-77.00-76.10. Buy above 80.50-76.10 with risk daily closing below 76.10; targeting 81.20-82.30-82.70 and 83.30-84.00.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0773/EUR, a high of US$1.0886/EUR, and settled the day up by 0.0611% to close at US$1.0792/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0830-1.1100, targeting 1.0830-1.0790-1.0690 and 1.0650-1.0590-1.0520 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1100. Buy above 1.0760-1.0520 with risk below 1.0820 targeting 1.0900-1.0945-1.0990 and 1.1050-1.1100.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2253/GBP, a high of US$1.2435/GBP, and settled the day down 0.500% to close at US$1.2342/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.2290-1.1890 with a target of 1.2290-1.2350 and 1.2390-1.2445-1.2290 with a stop loss closing below 1.1890. Sell in between 1.2350-1.2445 with targets at 1.2290-1.2170-1.2120 and 1.2040-1.1990-1.1890 with stop loss should be 1.2445.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of JPY127.55/USD and made an intraday high of JPY131.57/USD and settled the day up by 0.292% at JPY128.85/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 129.00-133.00 with risk above 133.00 targeting 127.45 and 126.90-126.20-125.00. Long positions above 127.50-126.20 with targets of 129.00-129.70-130.40 and 131.10-131.60-132.00 with stops below 130.00.