Daily Markets

• Oil prices climbed on Monday as the borders reopened in China, the world's top crude importer, boosting the outlook for fuel demand growth and offsetting global recession concerns. Hopes for less-aggressive U.S. interest rate rises are buoying financial markets and depressing the dollar. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for investors holding other currencies. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. Domestically, some 2 billion trips are expected during the Lunar New Year season, nearly double last year's movement and recovering to 70% of 2019 levels, Beijing says. Over the last week, airlines have boosted their January international seat capacity to and from China by 9.5% as they ramp up flights after its border opening, according to aviation data provider Cirium. Despite the gains in oil on Monday, concerns remain that the massive flow of Chinese travellers may cause another surge in COVID infections, while broader economic concerns also lingered. Those concerns are reflected in the market structure for the benchmark oil futures. Both front-month Brent and WTI contracts are in contango, when current prices are below prices for later-delivery contracts, which typically indicates bearish sentiment for the market. Energy futures for crude oil, refined products and natural gas have plummeted in the New Year as traders have reconsidered near-term worries over cold weather and fears of supply shortages and dumped contracts. Last week, U.S. energy firms cut the number of operating oil and natural gas rigs by seven, the biggest weekly decline since September 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said on Friday.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Thursday made it’s intraday high of US$1869.82/oz and low of $1830.54/oz. Gold is up by 1.842% at US$1865.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1809) and breakage below will call for 1790. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are a2lso increasing trend and it will bring an upward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in the overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving a negative crossover to a bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Sell on Strength

Sell below 1879-1927 keeping stop loss closing above 1927, targeting 1869-1860-1849 and 1834-1826-1808. Buy in between 1869-1800 with risk below 1800, targeting 1,879-1887-1900 and 1907-1927.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$23.90/oz and low of US23.19/oz settled up by 2.66% at US$23.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 100DMA (21.00), breakage above will lead to 21.60. MACD is below the zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring a bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is approaching the neutral region, indicating a buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region and gives a positive crossover to show an upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Buy in between 23.90-20.30, targeting 24.40-25.00-25.90 and 26.20-26.90 with stop loss should be placed on the breakage below 20.30. Sell in between 24.40-26.20 with stop loss above 26.20; targeting 23.60-23.00-22.10 and 21.70-21.30-20.70.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$75.63/bbl, an intraday low of US$73.41/bbl, and settled down by 0.325% to close at US$73.85/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 20DMA i.e. 68.50 which is a support level and breakage below will call for 65.40. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring a bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral region, giving a positive crossover for confirmation of a bullish stance; while the RSI is in the neutral region and more upside can be expected to reach the overbought region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell in between 76.10-81.40 with stop loss at 81.40; targeting 75.20-74.10-72.90 and 72.10-71.40-70.10. Buy above 75.20-70.10 with risk daily closing below 70.10; targeting 76.10-77.00-78.10 and 79.00-79.90-80.70.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0481/EUR, a high of US$1.0647/EUR, and settled the day up by 1.165% to close at US$1.0641/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 50DMA (1.0736), which becomes immediate support, a break below will target 1.0647. MACD is above the zero line and histograms are increasing mode which will bring a bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to the bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in a neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 1.0690-1.0930, targeting 1.0650-1.0590-1.0520 and 1.0450-1.0390-1.0325 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0940. Buy above 1.0650-1.0390 with risk below 1.0390 targeting 1.0690-1.0735-1.0790 and 1.0830-1.0900.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.1840/GBP, a high of US$1.2099/GBP, and settled the day up 1.586% to close at US$1.2090/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 20DMA (1.2113) is becoming a resistance level. 14-D RSI is currently in a neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and gives a positive crossover to confirm bullish a stance. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are increasing leading to movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy in between 1.1890-1.0640 with a target of 1.1950-1.1990-1.2090 and 1.2120-1.2170-1.2280 with a stop loss closing below 1.0640. Sell in between 1.1950-1.2290 with targets at 1.1890-1.0850-1.0800 and 1.0730-1.1640 with stop loss should be 1.2290.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made an intra‐day low of JPY131.99/USD and made an intraday high of JPY134.76/USD and settled the day down by % at JPY132.09/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 200DMA (108.30), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in the overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above the zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and signaling to sell as it has given a negative crossover to confirm a bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 134.90-138.00 with risk above 138.00 targeting 134.10-132.90-131.90 and 131.10-130.40-129.50. Long positions above 134.10-130.00 with targets of 134.90-135.70-136.90 and 137.70-139.50 with stops below 130.00.